4 hours ago
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Good morning! The USMNT World Cup kits are good. Coming up:
- 🇻🇪 Venezuela makes first WBC final
- ✏️ Specific bracket tips
- ➕ NBA expansion plans
While You Were Sleeping: Venezuela tops Cinderella
Megan Briggs / Getty Images
The Italian baseball dream of 2026, fueled by dugout espressos, good vibes and a bevy of American-born players, is over. Venezuela, a team filled with native talent, will play Team USA tonight for the World Baseball Classic crown after a 4-2 win over the Italian upstarts last night.
Two quick thoughts:
- The Venezuelan team, which no one picked to do much of anything coming into this tournament, has made detractors look silly. Wins over Japan and a red-hot Italy team in the knockout rounds have been the stuff of champions. And don’t think MLB talent is absent: Eugenio Suárez, who hit 49 homers last year, hit a solo shot last night. Jacksoun Chourio, something of a wunderkind for the Brewers, scored the go-ahead run. Ronald Acuña Jr., the 2023 NL MVP, leads off. This team is legit.
- There also is a political backdrop impossible to ignore, however much we want to keep politics out of sports. America and Venezuela are playing a game against each other, on American soil, just two months after U.S. forces captured and extradited Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
The game is tonight at 8 p.m. ET. It should be a great matchup, and the crowd in Miami will be electric. More on that in a bit, because we have bracket business to attend:
Computer, Enhance: Headline
Yesterday, our new bracket landscape felt frenzied. Everything was new. We didn’t have time to sit with our brackets and the matchups. Just having them was exciting enough. Today, I’d like to crystallize our experience a bit more.
Let’s do some more … specific categories:
Our No. 1 care: What are the upsets going to be? They’re much more likely on the men’s side, historically, so we’re starting there. Three big potential upsets, per our data:
- No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Vanderbilt: 41.2 percent chance
- No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina: 40.9 percent
- No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin: 35 percent
Tantalizing. See the full list of probable upsets. Also including two women’s picks below:
- No. 11 Nebraska over No. 6 Baylor: 63.8(!) percent
- No. 11 Richmond over No. 6 Baylor: 41.1 percent
Not a typo there, as Nebraska and Richmond play each other in the First Four. Tough look for the Bears. More women’s upset picks here.
OK, but what about the actual strategy? I’ll admit that I normally just start in the first round and fill out my bracket based on vibe checks, mostly, with some statistical research for any that stump me. Our experts have better ideas.
- CJ Moore has predicted seven of the last eight Final Four teams. He says we should go to the title game first and work our way backward.
- Austin Mock, meanwhile, sketched out some bracket strategies for large and small pools. It does differ … which I never thought about. See his data-informed picks here.
The over-under on “Impractical Jokers” ads: This is probably my favorite question on the predictions game I briefly mentioned yesterday. Three other standouts with my answers:
- Will the UConn women’s team trail at any point during its first-round game? No.
- How many buzzer-beaters will there be in the first weekend? Four or more, because I’m projecting.
- Who will score the most points during the first weekend (both men and women)? Audi Crooks.
Take the quiz here and keep your results open. We’ll have plenty more insights tomorrow, too.
Let’s move on:
News to Know
Ethan Miller / Getty Images
NBA inches nearer expansion
NBA owners will vote March 25 on whether to officially explore expanding the league by two teams, in Las Vegas and Seattle. This has been a long-churning idea, as commissioner Adam Silver spoke on it at the All-Star Game last month. If the league decides to move forward, it would need 23 of 30 owners to vote in favor.
What’s more interesting is how these two additions could reshape the NBA. Divisions will change, and one team will assuredly move from the Western to the Eastern conference. There would also be an expansion draft. John Hollinger astutely broke down all the possible changes.
More news:
- Phillies outfielder Johan Rojas lost his appeal and will serve an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test. More here.
- The blown strike call at the end of Team USA’s WBC win over the Dominican Republic was a talker yesterday. ABS might be coming to the next WBC.
- The Jets traded quarterback Justin Fields to the Chiefs, sources said. Fascinating.
- Six-time Pro Bowler Darius Slay announced his retirement yesterday.
- NFL players earned $542 million in performance bonuses this year. See how the whole process works.
- Alabama men’s basketball player Aden Holloway was arrested and charged with first-degree possession of marijuana. He will not play in the NCAA Tournament.
- Very cool: USF coach Bryan Hodgson received a gift with the Bulls’ NCAA Tournament site of Buffalo, N.Y. — his father will be able to watch him coach for the first time. Read the story.
📰 Find more news here 24/7.
Watch Guide
📺 UCL: Bodo/Glimt at Sporting CP
1:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+
We’re starting here with the first match of the Champions League day, as Bodo/Glimt — the most interesting team left in this tournament — has a chance to advance to the quarterfinals of the biggest club soccer competition in Europe. The team’s backstory is incredible.
📺 WBC: Venezuela vs. Team USA
8 p.m. ET on Fox
A fantastic matchup for what should be a great World Baseball Classic final. I already miss this tournament and it’s not over yet. What’s interesting: American coaches have no qualms starting a rookie on the mound in this game. Bold.
📺 NBA: 76ers at Nuggets
10 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock
Denver is a playoff lock while Philly is idling in the Play-In. The Sixers are intriguing to me; Two bona fide superstars in Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey with no real recourse to becoming an elite team. Cavaliers-Bucks precedes this at 8 p.m. ET.
📺 NHL: Lightning at Kraken
10 p.m. ET on TNT and HBO Max
It feels like every game is a must-win for Seattle right now, as Sean McIndoe highlighted in his weekend rankings, as they fight among four teams for one playoff spot in the Western Conference. High pressure here against one of the NHL’s best teams.
Get tickets to games like these here.
Pulse Picks
America has a new hockey star: sled hockey center Jack Wallace, who scored a hat trick in Team USA’s Paralympic gold win over Canada. Get to know him.
Baseball’s minor leagues will again feature rule changes this year MLB wants to test for the future, which include moving second base. Jayson Stark has the full dossier here.
One character I didn’t consider in the story of Bam Adebayo’s 83 points: the official scorer, who gave an exclusive interview for Fred Katz about the magical night. His hand hurt.
Mike Jones has a detailed look at winners and losers of the NFL free agency period. Look away, Raiders fans.
How did the Buffalo Sabres — the Sabres! — become the hottest team in the East and a lock to make the postseason. Shayna Goldman has answers.
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: The men’s printable bracket.
Most-read on the website yesterday: The Italy-Venezuela live blog. We clearly love the entire WBC.
📫 That’s all for now! Say hello at [email protected], and check out our other newsletters.
